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Slots manufacturers and casinos swear it’s impossible, but many people claim they know how to tell if a slot machine is going to hit. Some say just by watching, they can tell when it’s “due”. Others say they emit a hot or cold aura. We’ll examine these theories and more to get to the bottom of the mystery.
- How Slots Work: Before we get into theoretical suppositions, you should know exactly what it is that makes today’s modern slots tick. Random RNG algorithms control each spin, while a predestined RTP gives the casino its edge.
- Due for a Win: “This slot machine hasn’t paid more than $5 in two hours. It’s due for a win!” Is that really true? Learn why it isn’t, and at the same time, it is…
- Hot & Cold Slots: If you’ve ever gone swimming in a pool, you know what it’s like to hit a cold spot, or worse, a warm spot (ew!). Some people claim slots emit the same thermal vibes.
- Luck & Variance: Gamblers call it luck. Slots makers call it variance. It’s the same thing. Lucky/variance is the fluctuating up/downswing that occurs between meeting a game’s RTP.
- Tips for Winning Slots: Whether you’re instincts are spot on or dead wrong, there are provably effective methods to increase your chances of winning slot machines.
Disclaimer – Not all forms of gambling are legal in all provinces of Canada. The legal age to gamble also varies by province. Breaking the law is a serious matter. The information provided on this website is meant for educational purposes only, and we will not be held liable for any irresponsible / illegal activity on your part. Know the gambling laws in your province and follow them. The following pages provide more information on Canadian gambling laws: Alberta – British Columbia – Manitoba – Newfoundland & Labrador – New Brunswick – Nova Scotia Northwest Territory – Nunavut – Ontario – Prince Edward Island – Quebec – Saskatchewan – Yukon |
How Slot Machines Work – RNG, RTP and Volatility |
The first slot machines were invented over one hundred years ago, long before computers came along. They were mechanical devices featuring an array of drums. On the drums were various symbols. When a lever was pulled, the drums spun around, coming to a random stop. If the symbols matched up, you won. If not, you lost. Figuring out your odds of winning the big prize was as simple as multiplying the number of symbols on each drum together. Not anymore… Since the dawn of computer technology, these games have been programmed to defy traditional odds. There are no drums. The number of symbols per reel is not static. Everything is controlled by a computer chip running a software program, designed to pay out a very specific percentage of its take. The three main programmable functions of a slot machine are the random number generator (RNG), the return to player (RTP), and the volatility. Let’s take a closer look… Random Number Generator (RNG)Remember the movie, The Matrix, when the green numbers kept raining down the computer screen? That’s an RNG. It’s a random strain of seemingly endless numbers generated by a computer. The algorithm it generates determines an outcome. There are countless applications for an RNG in the real world, but few so famous as casinos games. In a slot machine, the RNG determines exactly what symbols will land in each position on the reels. If you could see the RNG, you would never be able to read it. Each and every number in the sequence is changing with each passing nanosecond. It does not stop until the exact moment a player presses the SPIN button. At that very moment, the sequence of symbols is determined by the number produced. As a player, we still see the reels spinning as they come to a slow halt, but the machine already knows where they are going to land, because the RNG told it so. The whole purpose of the RNG is to ensure no one – not the players, the casino managers, or the players – is able to predict what will happen on any given spin. It’s all about timing. Press at just the right moment, and the jackpot is awarded. For this reason, a machine could pay back-to-back jackpots just as easily as withholding the jackpot for more than a year. Knowing that this is how a game works, it’s hard to imagine that anyone could know how to predict when a slot machine will win. And yet, so many seem capable of doing so. More on that in a moment… Return to Player (RTP)The RTP is the amount of money a machine pays out, compared to what it takes in. The RTP is always displayed as a percentage. For those of you familiar with how “house edge” works, the RTP is the opposite of the house edge. RTP refers to the amount players win back, whereas house edge is the amount the casino wins. Put them together, and you get a total 100%. For example, let’s say a slot machine has a 95% RTP. This means the game will pay back 95% of its monetary intake over time. The other 5% is the amount the casino wins. Theoretically, if you were to spin the reels 100 times on this machine at $1 per spin, you would end up with $95 left. The important word here, however, is “theoretically”. RTP is always theoretical. Yes, the machine will meet its RTP. It’s a computer. They don’t make mistakes. But the RTP will only be met over a very long period of time. We’re talking 20-25 years. So no, you’re not going to win exactly $95 back and lose $5 for every $100 you wager. If that were the case, every player would lose and no one would ever want to come back to the casino. That’s where volatility comes in… VolatilityA game’s volatility determines how often it is likely to strike a winning combination, and the average size of each prize paid. It can be low, medium, or high. A low volatility game is one that pays out very small amounts very often. A high volatility game will pay high prizes, but not very frequently. And a medium volatility is a balanced game, where mid-sized payouts occur on a regular, but not too regular, basis. The volatility of a machine will not alter its RTP. Over time, they all perform equally. But in the short term, their attributes can seem very different. At low volatility, a machine will arrive at its intended RTP more frequently, whereas a high volatility game will have much greater upswings and downswings.
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How to Tell if a Slot Machine is Due to Win |
If a game has not paid out a decent sized win in a relatively long period of time, it is said to be “due” to hit. When a progressive jackpot reaches record height, more people play it because they feel it’s due to strike any moment. This certainly seems like a logical mode of action. The game will pay out big at some point, and the longer it’s been since the last big payout, the closer that moment has to be. But is it really possible to predict exactly when it will happen? As we’ve already learned, a slot machine’s RNG makes it impossible to know the exact moment a game will pay out a jackpot. But knowing when a relatively large payout is due – that’s really not so far-fetched. We know that game’s are destined to meet their RTP. And we know that an RNG determines every outcome the moment the SPIN button is pressed. Wouldn’t it make sense that the likelihood of the RNG producing a winning combination of numbers would be amplified by an actual RTP that is far below its intended RTP? The real problem with this theory is that you have to know what a game’s actual RTP is, compared to its intended RTP. The only way to know if a game is far enough behind to potentially impact the value of the RNG algorithm is to sit back and watch the game for a long period of time. If you have the patience for it, give it a shot. |
Does this Slot Machine Have a Temperature Gauge? |
Some say slot machines can be hot or cold. Some believe this is a metaphorical statement, while others swear that game’s can produce a genuine thermal output. We’ll start wit the metaphorical… A slot machine is hot when it is producing above average wins. It could be paying more frequently than its volatility implies, or it might be paying larger prizes than average. There are slots enthusiasts out there that will only play hot slot machines, hoping to ride that wave of success all the way to shore. Then there are players who avoid these game’s for fear they’ve paid all they’re going to pay for a good long while. The opposite is true of a “cold” slot machine. A cold machine is one that is paying well below average. As we’ve already discussed, a game that hasn’t paid out a decent prize in a long time gets labeled “due” for a win. Contrary to hot-slot-lovers, some players will lie in wait for a slot machine to become very cold, then pounce on it as soon as the previous player leaves, expecting a quick strike. As for those who believe a machine can become physically and detectable hot or cold, I’ve never experienced this myself. Maybe it takes a special kind of person – someone with a sixth sense, or one who can sees auras. Those who attest to its accuracy say a hot machine is ready to pay, and a cold one is not. My suggestion would be to walk the aisles and, if you feel a warm spot, give it a try. |
The Correlation Between Slot Variance & Luck |
A slot machine’s variance is how far it strays from its RTP. It is similar to volatility, except that volatility defines how much it should stray, whereas variance defines how much its actually straying at any given time. Variance is, in reality, what the majority of gamblers refer to as “luck”. When a player is having a good day at the casino, we say he is very lucky. One who is having a bad day is said to be unlucky. Luck is either on your side, or it’s not. As fun-loving gamblers, we attribute a lot to luck, or a lack thereof. But variance is the technically appropriate term. It is variance that allows some casino players to win large amounts of money, without hurting the casino’s bottom line. Those who win are on the receiving end of a game’s variance (lucky). But many more players lose, or fall on the negative side of that variance (unlucky). If one player wins a $10k jackpot, imagine how many players have to lose to pay for it, and still ensure the casino gets its due. Suffice it to say, for all those who get lucky, many more will be unlucky. It is those who genuinely believe that you make your own luck that tend to proscribe to the theory that you can tell when a slot machine is about to win. Which brings us to our final segment… |
Five Ways to Better Your Chances of Winning on Slots |
After all you’ve read, do you think you know how to tell if a slot machine is going to hit? Whether you answered yes or no to that question, here is some genuine strategic advice that really will give you the best odds of leaving the casino a winner. 1. Higher RTP is BetterLook for slot machines with the highest RTP. It doesn’t mean you’re going to win, but it does increase the potential for winning. Not all games will display their RTP, but most will define it near the end of the paytable’s Info section. 2. Play Online SlotsLand-based casino slots have a typical RTP range of 85%-95%. Online slot machines have much higher RTPs, often ranging from 95%-97%. Online slots are also more likely to reveal their RTPs in the Info section. 3. Utilize Free SpinsTake full advantage of free spins bonuses whenever possible. These promotions come with wagering requirements and other stipulations that must be met before you can cash out any winnings, but it’s hard to complain when those spins aren’t coming out of your pocket book. 4. Beware Branded TitlesAs a society, we are drawn to things we are familiar with. If we like something, we flock to its brand mimicry. Case in point – The Ellen DeGeneres Show. It is immensely popular. If you love Ellen and her show, and you walk into a casino and see her face plastered on a slot machine of the same name, odds are you’ll want to play that game. Casinos and slot manufacturers know this, and use it to their advantage, which is why branded slots tend to have the lowest RTPs. Steer clear. 5. Ask the LocalsLocal slots players who frequent a casino know exactly which games pay out best, and which ones do not. So long as you’re not infringing on their seats, they are usually happy to share that information. In fact, there are social media groups dedicated to this topic. All you have to do is ask. |
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Slot machines often get a bad rap from gambling writers. But the truth is, slot machines are the perfect gambling activity for certain types of people. They’re easy to understand, they’re easy to play, and they offer the possibility of big winnings.
The unicorns that most gamblers are looking for in the casino, though, are the loosest slot machines. What does that mean?
When a gambler describes a slot machine as “loose” or “tight,” she’s usually referring to the payback percentage for the game. Slots with a higher payback percentage than average are loose, while slots with a lower payback percentage than average are tight. Loose slots usually have a higher hit ratio than tight slots, too.
You’ll find plenty of inaccurate information about how to find the loosest slot machines in the casino. I try to avoid most of those inaccuracies in this post, but I do want to begin with a warning:
The probabilities involved with slot machines are “opaque.” That means you don’t have any way of knowing what the payback percentage for any particular slot machine game is. The random number generator that determines the outcomes is programmed to have each symbol come up with a certain probability, but there’s no way of knowing if that number has been set to 1/6 or 1/60. Even observing a large number of spins only provides limited insight into these probabilities.
You do know what the payouts are for the various combinations. But since that’s only half the equation, you can’t really know whether a game is loose or tight except anecdotally. I’m going to assume that anecdotal evidence has some value, but in terms of math, science, and statistics, anecdotal has no value at all.
1- Look for the Loose Slot Machines in the Locations Where Loose Slot Machines Are Found
Casino mapping is a real thing, but it’s not as simple as some gamblers would have you believe. If finding the loose slot machines were as easy as just playing the games located nearest the walkways, everyone would play those games to the exclusion of the other games.
That being said, it might be worth giving those games a try if they look like fun. They’re not more likely to be tighter than the other machines than any other game on the casino floor.
I’ve read that some areas in the casino have lower payout machines than others, and it might be wise to avoid games in those areas. These might include:
- The main slot machine floor. These games probably see the most action, so it would make sense for them to have lower payback percentages.
- Near the table games. These games see more than their fair share of action, too. The same reasoning would apply.
- Near the poker room. I’ve seen some gamblers swear that these are the worst machines in the casino. You have to wonder about a poker player who spends a lot of time playing slots, though.
Of course, there are other locations where the loosest machines might be located. Depending on whom you believe, these might include:
- Anywhere that gets more traffic than usual. For example, if a slot machine is located near the elevators, it might have higher payouts to attract play from someone who might not otherwise play.
- Anywhere that another gambler recommends. This is, of course, the classic mistake—relying on anecdotal evidence. It’s possible, though, that you might find a slot machine player who’s been paying close attention and knows where the loose machines are.
In fact, that leads me to my next point…
2- Don’t Be Afraid to Ask
The obvious person to ask about the location in the casino of the loosest slot machines is someone who works there. This isn’t a guarantee that she’ll be able to direct you to a loose machine, but she might have some insight based on her observations. Depending on how long she’s worked at the casino, she’s probably seen tens of thousands of even hundreds of thousands of gamblers over her career there. She might have noticed that a lot of them seem to be winning on slot machines in a certain location.
If you’re dealing with a cocktail waitress, it’s a good idea to tip generously. For that matter, no matter what they do at the casino, if they try to help you find a loose gambling machine, tip them. At some casinos, employees are forbidden from suggesting specific games. Sometimes you’ll find casino employees who just don’t want to be bothered with such concerns, too. Don’t be a jerk if that’s the case.
3- Don’t Play Slot Machines That AREN’T in Casinos
In towns like Las Vegas, slot machines are everywhere, in all kinds of businesses. Every bar in the city seems to have some slot machines. The airport is full of slot machines, too. You can even find slot machines in the gas stations and convenience stores.
We know one thing for certain about slot machine games in these non-casino locations:
Casinos, on the other hand, are competing with other casinos for the mindshare and hard-earned dollars of the casino gamblers. Since they’re in competition with the other casinos, they must offer payback percentages that are as good as their competitors’ or better.
This is one ironclad rule for finding the loosest slot machines in the casino:
ONLY play slot machines in a casino, not the slot machines in other businesses. That’s as good a starting point as any. The difference could be as significant as the difference between a 94% payback percentage and a 74% payback percentage.
Assuming you’re a conservative, low-stakes player, here’s the difference in predicted hourly loss between those 2 examples:
- Assume 400 spins per hour at $1.25 per spin, for $500 per hour in action.
- A game with a 94% payback percentage will see predicted losses of $30/hour.
- A game with a 74% payback percentage, though, will see predicted losses of $130/hour.
If that difference doesn’t seem significant to you, what are you doing playing penny slots anyway?
4- Look for the Plainest, Most Boring Games with the Fewest Paylines
Generally, the slot machines with lots of paylines have lower payout percentages. They’re able to compensate for this psychologically by having a high hit frequency. With 25 paylines, you might win something on almost every spin, even if it’s an amount lower than the amount you wagered in total.
For example, you might be playing a penny game with a max bet of 5 coins and 25 paylines. You’re betting $1.25 every time you spin the reels. Many times, 1 or 2 paylines might win, but the payout on those bets might only be 50 cents. That’s a lot compared to the nickel you bet on that individual payline, but you bet on 25 paylines, remember?
Since such games have no bonus features or bells and whistles, the casino can afford to have them pay out more than the big fancy games. I had a lot of fun on The Big Lebowski slot machines recently, but I can’t even imagine what such a big impressive game like that must cost a casino. The cost of the machine alone must be outrageous.
5- Stick with the Flat Top Slot Machines
Slot machines can be broadly lumped into 2 different categories:
- Progressives
- Flat tops
A flat top slot machine is a game with a jackpot (top prize) of a fixed amount. This amount is usually 1000 times the size of your bet, give or take.
For that matter, you probably won’t get rich playing progressive slots, either. The odds of winning the jackpot are just terrible, comparable to playing the lottery. Sure, some people win the lottery. But I can’t imagine playing a game with a house edge that large repeatedly, hundreds of times per hour.
6- Play the Highest Denomination Game You Can Afford
You’d probably be surprised to know that penny slots are often as expensive to play (or even more expensive) than dollar slots. Here’s why:
Most penny slots require you to wager 5 credits or more per spin. It’s also hard to resist betting on multiple paylines. It’s easy to find a game with 5 coin bets on each line and with 25 paylines. Before you know it, you’re betting $1.25 on every spin.
But you could switch to a dollar slot machine and probably do a lot better. For one thing, you could just bet a dollar per spin on a single payline. Now you’re betting less per spin than you were on the quarter machine. But what’s really impressive is the difference in payback percentage.
Suppose you play 600 spins per hour on that penny machine. You’re putting $750 in action each hour–$1.25 per spin multiplied by the 600 spins per hour. With an 88.49% payback percentage, in the long run, you’ll average $663.68 back per hour. That’s an average loss per hour of $86.33.
No play those same 600 spins on a dollar machine, betting only a dollar on each spin. That’s $600 in action multiplied by 92.63% to get an average payback amount of $44.22. You’ll lose HALF the money on the dollar slot as you would the penny slot! That’s a significant difference, and one you should take note of.
Just be careful and read the pay tables. Slot machines vary a lot from one machine to another, and you should always play enough coins to activate the biggest jackpot. If the ratios change based on playing for fewer coins, you want to avoid that game or bet max coin. You might be surprised at how many slot machines DON’T require you to place a max coin bet, too, though.
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7- Try Online Slot Machines
Since online casinos don’t have all the brick and mortar expenses of land-based casinos, their games sometimes offer higher payback percentages. You must balance this with the trustworthiness of the casino, though. Some internet casinos are notoriously hard to cash out of.
Of course, if you stick with the casinos recommended on this site, you probably won’t have to worry about that. Our team of casino reviewers and researchers has thoroughly vetted the properties we list here on our site.
And if you take how competitive they are as a measure for how loose their games must be to attract customers, you’ll find that the casinos on the web are even more competitive than the casinos in Las Vegas.
8- Track Your Results and Make Some Assumptions
I recently visited a casino and tracked my results carefully on a machine. Of course, there’s nothing especially scientific about 200 spins on a machine, but you’re still operating from more data than most players if you do this.
It’s not hard to project a payback percentage, either. Start by writing down how much money you put in the machine. Then count how many spins you make on that machine. When you cash out of the machine, take a note of how much you’ve lost. You multiply the number of spins you made by how much you were betting per spin. You divide the total amount of money you lost by how many spins you made. Then you know the average loss per spin and can convert it into a payback percentage.
In my case, I was betting $1.25 per spin, so I put $250 in to action over 200 spins. I lost $50, which amounts to 25 cents per spin. 25 cents divided by $1.25 is 20%, which is the house edge. The payback percentage is the amount you get to keep—in this case, 80%. (You just subtract it from 100%.) Your goal is to find a payback percentage that’s better than average. Tracking your results this way also makes playing slot machines more interesting, because you have something to pay attention to.
There’s no scientific way to find the slot machines with the best payback percentage—the loosest slot machines. We have some ideas that are something more than guesswork, but they’re also a far cry from anything scientific.You can follow every piece of advice in this post and still lose more money at slot machines than you ever thought possible. My suggestion is to keep a careful budget for your gambling, and only play with money you can afford to lose.Gambling at a casino—especially on slot machines—should be considered an entertainment expense. Budget for it accordingly, and if you occasionally win, great. But don’t count on it.
How Can You Tell When A Slot Machine Is Going To Hit
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